Disrupted fuel supplies, damaged refineries and a stalled frontline are starting to bite into Russia’s war machine, even as Ukrainians pay a steep price in money and lives.
Léa Marchal
Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.
EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms.
Find the full transcript below:
The European Union is stepping up support for drone production for Ukraine’s war effort.
Last week, Donald Trump also authorised Kyiv to manufacture Patriot missiles.
Meanwhile, Russia seems to be getting prepared for a no-victory scenario.
So where does Ukraine stand in its war against Russia these past few weeks?
Ukraine is stepping up its offensive operations against Russia.
On Thursday, Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Engels-2 air base, home to strategic bombers that are regularly used to launch strikes against Ukraine.
Photos, videos, and eyewitness accounts reported fires at the base, as well as explosions and power outages in the nearby city of Engels following the attack.
Also on Thursday, the Ukrainian military said it had struck 11 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. These ships are used to transport Russian oil while bypassing international sanctions.
Ukraine has also been carrying out a growing number of attacks on Russian oil refineries and fuel storage facilities.
So, is this strategy paying off?
Yes.
Russia’s fuel production has been disrupted, slowing both its oil exports and, more importantly, its military effort, as some of the targeted refineries supply the Russian armed forces.
Perhaps even more significantly, Russia’s advance inside Ukraine has continued to slow. Moscow has fallen well short of the territorial gains it was aiming for over the past few months.
A leaked document from the Russian presidential administration even outlines talking points for presenting a future peace agreement with Ukraine as a Russian victory. The authors also warn that insisting on prolonging the war could ultimately lead to Russia’s collapse
These are all encouraging elements for Ukraine, which should however be nuanced. The country also suffers from heavy Russian attacks, and it is spending a lot of money and human resources in its war effort.
That being said, the latest developments still encourage Ukraine’s allies to maintain – and even increase their support.
On Wednesday, the European Union announced a new defence industry partnership with Ukraine. The main goal is to combine Ukraine’s expertise in drone technology with Europe’s industrial capacity to produce more drones for the Ukrainian military.
In practice, Ukraine contributes the know-how, while the EU provides manufacturing facilities located away from the reach of Russian strikes.
The United States is also increasing its support. A few days ago, Donald Trump announced that Ukraine would now be allowed to manufacture Patriot missiles domestically. These missiles are used to intercept Russian ballistic missiles and protect Ukrainian cities.
This renewed show of support, also demonstrated during last week’s Nato summit, strengthens Ukraine at a time when its overall strategic position against Russia appears stronger than it has been in recent months.
