Listen: Does Pedro Sánchez stand a chance of being reelected?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

Find the full transcript below:

Like France and Italy, Spain will hold a general election in 2027. Prime minister Pedro Sánchez is expected to run for another term.

But at home, his reputation has been damaged by a series of corruption scandals involving people close to him.

So, what are his chances of staying in power?

In the European Union of 2026, Pedro Sánchez is known as one of Donald Trump’s strongest critics. He has openly clashed with the US president over the war in the Middle East, as well as on other issues such as Big Tech.

That stance has earned him a certain level of popularity across Europe—and at home. According to a recent poll conducted for the Spanish media outlets El País and Cadena SER, nearly 70 percent of Spaniards support Sánchez’s position on the war involving Iran.

Within the EU, he is one of only three socialist heads of government. He is also the only one defending a clearly left-wing approach to migration.

While the European Union is rapidly tightening its migration policies, Sánchez has taken the opposite path. Earlier this year, his government announced plans to regularise the status of around 500,000 undocumented migrants.

As a result, many on the European left see him as a courageous leader who continues to pursue genuinely progressive policies.

He can also point to a relatively strong economic record.

Spain’s economy is growing much faster than most other eurozone countries.

Public debt remains high, at around 101 percent of GDP, but that’s significantly lower than in France or Italy, and it has been steadily declining since the Covid-19 crisis.

Unemployment is still relatively high compared with the rest of Europe, standing at around 10 percent, and even higher among young people. But here too, the trend has been improving steadily for several years.

So, does that mean Sánchez is likely to win re-election?

The answer is: it’s complicated.

He may still enjoy a certain level of popularity, but voters trust him less and less. That’s the assessment of Elena Sánchez, editor-in-chief of EUobserver, in an op-ed published a few weeks ago.

What is hurting the prime minister most is the growing number of scandals involving people in his inner circle.

His wife is under investigation for alleged influence peddling and embezzlement. Prosecutors suspect she used her husband’s position to secure a university master’s programme director role and later had an assistant paid by the prime minister’s office carry out work related to her academic position.

Pedro Sánchez’s brother has also been convicted of using his brother’s political influence to obtain a job in the public administration.

Former transport minister José Luis Ábalos, a close ally of the prime minister, has also been convicted in a corruption case involving the awarding of public contracts.

Several other people close to Sánchez are under investigation for alleged influence peddling or for attempting to obstruct judicial proceedings.

All of this has weakened the Spanish leader, who denies any wrongdoing and argues that these investigations are part of a politically motivated campaign by the opposition.

Speaking of the opposition, what does the political landscape currently look like in Spain?

Sánchez leads a coalition government made up of several left-wing parties as well as regional nationalist parties. However, last year he lost the support of the Catalan pro-independence party Junts.

He continues to face strong pressure from the conservative People’s Party, or PP, which governed Spain before him and actually won the most seats in the 2023 general election.

Fortunately for Sánchez at the time, the PP failed to secure enough allies to form a parliamentary majority. Sánchez, meanwhile, managed to win the backing of pro-independence parties and was reappointed prime minister.

So he remains in a fragile position. If his opponents manage to unite, they could bring down his government. So far, though, that has not happened.

Looking ahead to 2027, there is a real possibility that the conservative PP could win the election with the support of the far-right Vox party, giving them an outright majority in Parliament.

But it’s still possible that Sánchez could persuade enough voters to prevent that outcome.

In an editorial published by the Spanish outlet El Salto, which is part of the Sphera network alongside Europod, Carlos García Hernández argues that one possible strategy for Sánchez would be to call a referendum on whether Spain should remain a monarchy or become a republic. According to the author, such a move could strengthen Sánchez’s electoral prospects