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Would you choose £50,000 over the chance of £1m?

The vast majority of people – particularly women – answer a survey saying they’d take the certainty over chance.

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July 27, 2026
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ByKevin PeacheyCost of living correspondent

Published3 minutes ago

You have the choice of instantly receiving £50,000 or flipping a coin for a 50/50 chance of £1m.

Which would you choose?

The vast majority decide on taking the £50k, according to a survey of thousands of people by YouGov. Women voted 82% in favour of the guaranteed cash.

The poll has sparked a debate about why Brits appear more risk-averse than people in the US.

So why are the results so clear-cut, and what are the financial and psychological factors at play?

Sadly, there is little chance of ever having such a choice, but there are some interesting lessons for how we manage our money nonetheless.

Do you agree with the majority?

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the 4,600 adults asked in the survey said they would take the £50,000 now.

Just over a fifth (21%) went for the chance of £1m and, 6% of those asked sat on the fence and simply couldn’t decide.

The gender split in the results is striking. Some 82% of women opted for the £50,000, compared with 63% of men.

This chimes with other research which suggests that men are twice as likely to invest in stocks and shares than women, external, and women are more likely to subscribe to cash ISAs than men, external.

Does the choice depend on how much you earn?

Lots of people might opt for the £50,000 guarantee, deciding that it is a life-changing amount of money in itself.

After all, it is £10,000 more than the median average earnings for full-time workers in the UK for an entire year, according to official statistics, external.

But younger people generally earn less and yet, according to this survey, external, those aged 18 to 24 are more willing to take the bet on £1m than any other age group.

Some 28% go for the coin flip, compared with just 11% among the over-65s – their grandparents’ generation.

There is a different tipping point for everyone. Repeat the survey but instead guarantee £5 or offer a 50/50 chance for a £100, and most people will probably go for the £100 bet. After all, lots of people bet at least £2 a week hoping for a National Lottery win.

As those amounts rise, so your appetite for risk becomes clear.

Why not just invest the £50k?

One choice is to take the guaranteed £50,000 and hope it grows over time.

Saving the money would be helped by the magic of compound interest.

Alternatively, you could take more of a risk, but potentially with greater reward, by investing the money.

What has happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future when it comes to investments.

But you’d have had to have invested your £50,000 in a typical global fund just under 38 years ago for it to be worth £1m today, according to Sarah Coles, of investment firm AJ Bell.

Is it all in the mind?

We are hardwired, says Coles, to go for the guaranteed £50,000.

That’s because we feel losses more acutely than gains, she says.

“The thrill of potentially winning £1m is felt less strongly than the fear of giving up a guaranteed £50,000 and ending up with nothing,” she says.

In other words, having £50k and knowing you might have won £1m will play on your mind.

But it is not as bad as having a crack at £1m and knowing you’ve given up enough for an average deposit to buy a home in the West Midlands, external.

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