Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsTom Bill, head of UK residential research at the estate agent Knight Frank, says that house prices are “going sideways” as a result of higher mortgage rates since the start of the war in the Middle East.The good news is that geopolitical
Lauren Almeida
While many markets are holding out for less economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility, there appears to have been a flare up this morning – oil prices are rising after an attack on a vessel in the strait of Hormuz, the key shipping channel that was closed due to the US-Israel war with Iran.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up 1.1% today, back up above $72 a barrel. Reports suggest a liquefied natural gas carrier was hit by a projectile near the Omani coast as it exited the strait of Hormuz in the early hours of Tuesday.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at the estate agent Knight Frank, says that house prices are “going sideways” as a result of higher mortgage rates since the start of the war in the Middle East.
The good news is that geopolitical risks are subsiding as both sides move gradually towards a ceasefire and mortgages are edging lower. The bad news is that domestic political risks are rising and various trial balloons about changes to property taxation are being floated for the third consecutive year, which will keep a lid on activity and prices this summer.”
Meanwhile Amy Reynolds, head of sales at a Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says that while the market is broadly flat, it is expected given that fixed-rate mortgages have been “sitting at an artificially elevated level, driven as much by lenders managing a surge in applications as by the underlying economics”.
The encouraging news is that brokers are already seeing the first signs of a correction coming through on fixed rates – not a return to the sub-4% deals of six weeks ago, but a genuine easing from where we’ve been.
If this continues, we’d expect to see it feed through into more confident buyer activity over the coming months, rather than the cautious, wait-and-see approach that’s kept price growth so muted.
We’re also seeing more interest in tracker mortgages, priced off base rate rather than a fixed margin, as buyers hedge against uncertainty while keeping the option to switch to a fixed deal without penalty once pricing settles further. In short: these figures reflect the peak of the rate squeeze, not the start of a new slowdown, and there’s a reasonable case for a gentler market from here, as well as a reason for cautious optimism.”
The modest 0.2% month-on-month rise in UK house prices in June represents the first increase in four months, Lloyds has said. In May, prices had slipped by 0.2% compared with the month prior.
Bryden adds that for first-time buyers, annual house price growth rose from 0.8% in June from 0.3% in May. The average first-time property now costs £240,433, according to Lloyds.
London remains the most expensive market in the UK, where an average property costs £534,831 – though prices here fell by 1.1% year-on-year in June. More broadly, the south east was the worst performing region across the UK, with prices down 2% y-o-y.
Scotland was the second strongest behind Northern Ireland, where prices were up 3.9% to an average of £223,277.
In Wales, prices were up 0.9% on an annual basis to £231,142. In the north east of England, prices were up 2.8% to an average of £181,133, while the north west recorded a rise of 2.4% to £248,218.
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
UK house prices nudged up 0.2% in June compared with the month prior, according to new figures from the lender Lloyds.
The average price for a home is now £299,330, it found, compared with £298,812 in May.
On an annual basis, house prices are up 0.6% – slightly higher than an annual growth rate of 0.5% in May. Northern Ireland remains the clearest outlier, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Lloyds, said the figures reflected wider economic uncertainty.
Recent price trends continue to reflect wider economic uncertainty, including the impact of global events on inflation and interest rate expectations. While affordability remains stretched for many buyers, mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, offering some encouragement to those considering a move.
While latest industry data shows the number of new mortgage approvals dropped in May, this wasn’t unexpected given the spike in rates seen earlier this year, and we’d expect to see activity recover assuming borrowing costs continue to fall.
…Looking ahead, we expect the housing market to continue moving at a measured pace. Lower borrowing costs should provide some support for demand, though affordability constraints remain an important factor. The outlook for house prices will depend largely on inflation continuing to ease and household confidence gradually improving.”
Meanwhile overnight, Asian stocks have been broadly falling as the chip sector has come under pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is down 1.4%.
Samsung Electronics, which has been one of the best performing stocks in the region this year having more than doubled its share price, dropped as much as 10% despite reporting a 19-fold jump in profit. The chipmaker SK Hynix dropped 6%, and the South Korean Kospi index dropped 5.3%. Earlier in the day an 8% drop in the index triggered a temporary trading halt.
The agenda
7am BST: Lloyds house prices for June
9.30am BST: Fiscal risks and sustainability report from the Office for Budget Responsibility
10.30am BST: Bank of England Financial Stability report
1.30pm BST: US May trade balance
