Now the Labour civil war really begins

Starmer, who has pledged to fight for the job he won in a landslide general election less than two years ago, and his allies will exploit those questions to the fullest. The two men are expected to speak as soon as this weekend after a month-long campaign in which the pair didn’t hold a single phone call — despite the official Labour mandate to all sitting members of parliament to help Burnham win. 

Burnham, who will be sworn in on Monday, is expected to try to persuade Starmer to step aside, though allies say he won’t launch a formal leadership challenge in the first 72 hours after today’s by-election victory. In preparation for the expected contest, however, he has been devoting more time in recent weeks to work up national policy. There are 100-day plans, though they’re still embryonic. Current Cabinet ministers, nominally loyal to Starmer, have been lining up for phone calls with Burnham. And yet Starmer’s allies say his resolve to fight for his job has hardened in recent weeks; they say the PM even believes he can beat Burnham, the overwhelming favorite, in a vote of the party’s grassroots members.

Burnham isn’t alone in his ambition to topple his party chief, who has been weakened by a poor Labour performance in recent local elections as well as a cascade of embarrassments stemming from his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a longtime friend of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as the U.K. ambassador to Washington. Other rivals include Wes Streeting, a leading light from Labour’s centrist wing who resigned last month from his position as health secretary. 

Allies of both Burnham and Streeting believe some Cabinet ministers could resign next week to pile pressure on Starmer to set a timetable for his exit. If Starmer resists, Burnham or Streeting are expected to launch a formal challenge. Streeting insists he has the 80 MP backers he needs under party rules, despite Starmer’s belief that he is bluffing — and despite Streeting continuing to contact ministers urging them to resign, back him or both.

“None of us know where we’re going to end up by next week,” one Cabinet minister, granted anonymity to speak frankly like other figures quoted in this piece, told POLITICO in recent days.

“I’m so tired of the rollercoaster,” added one Starmer-allied official in London. Asked about plans for Friday, another said: “I will be crying and doing my CV.”