As his tenure ends, France’s budget problems and the prospect of a far-right president threaten Macron’s legacy.
Laura Kayali
The French president’s defense legacy — defined by a pivot to Europe — is marked by a boost in defense spending and the very early stages of including European countries in France’s nuclear deterrent. But as his tenure ends, two forces of budget limits and the far-right are casting a shadow.
While centrist candidates looking to succeed Macron are likely to continue his direction, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who is leading in the polls, has made clear that France will significantly reduce its role in NATO and the EU if she wins.
“The shift toward Europe has taken place, and the next president will have to decide whether to continue or reject this now very clear course of action, which the administration has embraced,” said Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Paris-based IFRI security studies center. “This is the issue that most concerns our European allies.”
Le Pen’s shadow
Less than one year before his term ends, the French president is starting a series of swan songs.
His last NATO summit this week will be followed on July 13 by his final pre-Bastille Day speech to the armed forces. He will host a Coalition of the Willing meeting on the same day to gather Ukraine allies before the traditional July 14 military parade in Paris (also his last).
Since 2022, after initially calling NATO “brain dead,” the president has been the face of France’s growing dedication to the alliance — a commitment that could come to an end if Le Pen is elected president.
