The battle for Number 10 is over.
An overwhelming number of Labour MPs have nominated Andy Burnham. Under Labour’s rules he needs trade union support too.
He crossed that threshold today. He is moving into Number 10 on Monday.
But the beneath-the-radar battle for Number 11 Downing St is continuing. Whoever Burnham appoints as chancellor – and next-door neighbour in Downing Street – will send a signal of his intent both to politicians and to the bond markets.
The official line from team Burnham is that no decision has been taken.
Announcements on cabinet posts are not expected to be made until Monday, when Burnham moves to Number 10.
Discussions have been taking place amongst a tight group of people – the next Number 10 chief of staff James Purnell, Louise Haigh and the former MP who stood aside for Burnham, Josh Simons.
When Burnham won the subsequent Makerfield by-election the widespread assumption was that the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would move to the Treasury.
But there has been both noisy and more subtle attempts to influence Burnham’s choice of chancellor – ranging from unions with workers in the oil and gas industry and who distrust Miliband’s instincts, to Sir Keir Starmer’s unpaid ‘cost of living’ tsar Lord Walker, the boss of Iceland.
He runs supermarkets but argues that it’s the bond markets that would “freak out” if an “ideological” chancellor was installed in the Treasury.
In recent days, a number of MPs close to Burnham – who have no animus to the energy secretary – believe the likelihood of appointing Miliband has lessened significantly.
The caveat is that they are not making the decisions, but are discerning the mood.
Those close to Miliband believe that it’s not only highly possible that he will still be appointed but highly desirable too.
They point to his credentials. He has an economics background, was an adviser in the Treasury under Gordon Brown and chaired the Council of Economic Advisers.
He has ministerial experience in the last Labour government and this one. He knows his way around. A colleague put it like this: “He can make the Treasury do what it doesn’t want to do.”
Miliband has offered advice to Burnham regularly and recently and would be in lock-step with Burnham in the task of spreading growth, in Burnham’s words, “to every postcode”.
As for the bond markets, one supporter has stressed his adherence to the fiscal rules on debt and borrowing, and another put it more colourfully: “He isn’t Che Guevara.”
Many in the parliamentary party would expect him to move to Number 11. If he isn’t, some on the party’s soft left will think that Burnham has refused the first fence in the race to change Britain.
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But there are other factors at play here.
Lord Jim O’Neill was chief economist with Goldman Sachs, commercial secretary to the Treasury under David Cameron, a driving force behind the Northern Powerhouse, chairman of the Cities Growth Commission and has been advising Burnham.
So too has Andy Haldane, the former chief economist at the Bank of England.
O’Neill grew up in Greater Manchester, Haldane in north-east England. It’s not known what roles, if any, they might be offered in government.
But if Burnham sees the Treasury as a brake on, rather than an accelerator of, regional growth then his Number 10 operation – both in Downing St and soon in Manchester too – might be given a stronger grip on economic policy.
Haigh has also called for a “beefed-up No 10” promoting growth. And in that scenario, if the likes of Haldane and O’Neill were on board, would Miliband’s skills be quite so essential at the Treasury?
So Burnham’s decision on personnel might be part of a bigger picture.
I’ve been told there are “live discussions” over installing Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in Number 11.
She doesn’t have an economics background but it may be felt that a senior minister from the party’s right could reassure the markets and avoid a potentially bumpier transition for Burnham.
But one senior source insists the decision is not yet “clear cut”. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is also seen as a potential occupant of Number 11.
Nothing will be confirmed until next week and Burnham’s camp are emphasising no decision has been taken.
But as Burnham’s D-Day (Downing St day) approaches, decisions will have to be taken privately if not publicly very soon.
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